ロボット開発の国際学会の講演 05.6.13名古屋大学11.30-12.00

社会経済の観点から見たロボット開発

中京大学 大学院教授     経済学博士   水 谷 研 治

IEEE Workshop on Advanced Robotics and its Social Impacts (ARSO ’05)

Plenary Talk

Economy and Innovation

 of Robot’s Technology

                          Dr. Mizutani Kenji (Chukyo University)

0. Welcome to Nagoya

(a)I have honor to have this opportunity to speak my opinion, regarding Japanese Economy and Robot’s Technology.

(b)First of all, I welcome to Nagoya.

  �@Nagoya is located almost at the center of Japanese population, or the population center of gravity of Japan. If you seek for the point which is most convenient for all Japanese people to gather in one point, it is a little north of Nagoya city.

  �ANagoya is very convenient from the point of traffic. We have the main road through Nagoya in between Kyoto and Tokyo from ancient era. Main rail road was build as Tokaido-line.

40 years ago we built New Tokaido-line, shinkansen.

  �BThe first high way of Japan was build in between Kobe and Tokyo through Nagoya, called Meishin and Toumei High-Way.

Now we are going to construct New Toumei and Meishin-High Way, much more glamorous than present High- Way.

  �CI think, many of you came through Chubu central airport which started just this February.

This airport is near Nagoya station. It takes less than 30 minutes from airport to Nagoya station. From Nagoya station you can get to Tokyo within 2 hours, and to Osaka within 1 hour by Tokaido-shinkansen.

  �DAs the new airport is located near to New Toumei-meishin Highway. This airport is very convenient for the transportation of cargo. So that the central airport is quite useful for the manufactures of this area.

  �EOf course sea port of Nagoya is also important now. It is the largest port in Japan.

 Nagoya port deals with a lot of export. The amount of surplus, that is export minus import of Nagoya port, is very large. Through this port almost half of surplus of total Japanese balance of payment was made.

  �FThis means there are so many manufactures for export in this area.

  �GYes, this area is famous for the manufacturing. We have various types of industries. Of course most popular industries are car industry. But not only car industry, there are so many kind of production industry.

  �HAichi prefecture’s industrial production has been the largest in Japan, more than 25 years.

  �INagoya district is famous as the most prosperous area in Japan. Although, Japanese economy rose up for 3 years, yet most of Japanese people are not satisfactory.

  �JEconomy of Nagoya district is exceptionally good. For instance unemployment rate is lowest in Japan. Even in such depression, labor shortage reveals here and there in this district.

  �KOf course there must be some effect from Expo. But I think the effect of Expo is not so much. Foundation of economy depends entirely on enterprises’ activity.  And private sectors are active now.

�LWe can pick up many reasons. Among them the most prominent one is industrial structure.  There are many strong manufacturers in Nagoya area.

  �MNow, we noticed that for economic happiness, manufacturing is important.

(c) The 2005 World Exposition, Aichi, Japan Expo.

�@I am sure, you went to Exposition and enjoy Yesterday. Fortunately or unfortunately so many people go to the 2005 World Exposition, Aichi Japan Expo. So, we need so much time to visit pavilions.

�AThis Exposition’s main theme is Nature’s Wisdom; Natures’ Matrix, Art of Life, Development for Eco-Communities.

�BEverybody knows that Nature is precious and important. However we, human cannot live rich life without artificial tools and machines. 

�CIn this Exposition, you may see various Robots here and there. Robot’s show performances are displayed for instant, in Toyota Group Pavilion. Besides in these Pavilions, at open space of Exposition, many Robots guide us and answer to our questions.

�DThese are human style Robots. Human type Robots is familiar to everybody, especially to children.

�EBut actually in the manufacturing industries, we already used various type of automation machines for many years. I don’t know whether we call them Robots or not.

�FIf we want economically rich life continuously in future, we need Economical development. And for such economical level up, automatic machinery is indispensable, especially in future Japanese society.

1 Change of Social Economy

(a)Aging society with fewer children

  �@In Japan Birth Rate is going downward. Recent figure is 1.289. It is critical figure. It should be 2.2 or 2.3 at least to keep the total population of a nation. We cannot expect recovery of the birth rate in near future.

�AOn the other hand, many people live long. This means the happiest life for individual person. However it is very critical as a whole for the society.

�BAging society and fewer children are the most serious phenomena for future Japan. It is easy to foresee that so many serious problems will occur.

(b)From surplus supply society to short supply society

  �@Diminishing of working people will weaken the productivity of Japanese industry. We may not notice how serious this problem is.

�ABecause, our economic society is over supply society, we are surrounded now with abundant goods.

Nowadays, almost all people were born and grown up in such affluent circumstances.  So, people are apt to think, that such kind of over supply society will continue forever.

  �BIf we cannot produce much, our economic development will cease. So far as working persons are diminishing, we should raise the productivity of our economic society. We need the help of machinery, including Robots.

2 Manufacturing, vital to the Society

(a)Curve the productivity to prevent overproduction

  �@Before that, we should re-consider the importance of manufacturing. This means that we are apt to underestimate the importance of manufacturing.

  �AThis kind of attitude is quite reasonable, because we need not to produce anything. We are already surrounded by plenty goods. Over production and over capacity of production is the most specific feature of present Japanese economy.

  �BWe can get anything if we want. Even if the goods don’t exist, somebody may produce them.

The capacity of production is large. It is too large. If we want to make the capacity work full, we can easily produce too much, far exceeding the demand.

  �CActually it is impossible to produce as much as we can. If we do so, tremendous amount of articles overflow in the society.

  �DOver supply causes the depression. And everybody knows how serious depression is prevailing. So, in such circumstance we should not produce much. Otherwise overproduction destroys our economic society.

  �EThis kind of over supply situation will continue more than 10 years. During this period, people apt to think that manufacturing is not important at all.

(b) From over supply economy to less supply stage

  �@However we should look forward to future. We could not escape from aging society with fewer children.

  �AMany old people will consume as before. However, number of workable persons will decline sharply. This will deteriorate productivity of Japanese society.

  �BWhile total demand is stable, total supply will decline. The result is as follows.

  �COver supply economy will change into short supply economy. Due to this result, Japanese economic atmosphere will change from the deflationary economy into the inflationary economy. Because of short supply, the prices of articles have the tendency to rise.

  �DThis seems to offer large chance of getting money through production. We hope to get money by producing goods, because goods are required.

  �EIf we can produce goods, it is easy to get money. However, unfortunately it will be difficult to produce. Because, by that time, Japanese economy may change from over supply economy to less supply stage.

�FThis means we cannot get good raw materials and precise machineries freely. We cannot afford to produce good articles as we do today. We cannot get rid of the effect of hollowing of industry.

3.Under depression many company meet with difficulty to survive

(a) Hollowing of industry

  �@We are still in a depression. That depression comes from over supply and short demand.

  �ASo far as this situation will continue, it is quite difficult for the private companies to get money.

  �BOf course, many active companies invest and make factories. But these factories are not in Japan. They are made in other countries.

  �CThis kind of hollowing of industries happened in United State. That hollowing  deteriorates future Japanese economy. We cannot escape from this hollowing of industry even though it is quite dangerous in future.

(b)Economic level will decline

  �@Many companies have to cease to produce goods in Japan, as it is difficult for them to get profit. That entirely depends on the severe depression.

  �AI will show you briefly Japanese economy.

  As I said before, Japanese economy recovered for three years. Still many people think that present economic level is still very low.

   People expect to raise the economic level. However, we should notice that we are very happy, as our economy is supported by two large elements.

  One is by American element, the other is by our government budget.

  �BWe can export a lot to many countries, especially to the Unite States. Large amount of export is supported by the high level of quality of goods. And this comes from the result of productivity improvement in Japanese industries for long period.

  �CAt the same time, other countries have to buy them. The Unite States of America imports a lot.

  �DActually, the United States imports too much, exceeding export. Present deficit of balance of payment of the United States is abnormally large. Quite large amount of deficit continued many years. The United States have to pay the amount of deficit. They lost all the money that was accumulated for 60 years, within several years. And now they have to borrow money of deficit year by year. Now the United States have tremendous amount of borrowing.

  �EU.S. was a  rich country. They made excellent goods. Other countries want to import these goods. U.S. exports them to the other countries. U.S. got a lot of money by export. Their surplus of balance of payment, that is export minus import, had been large. U.S. accumulated large amount of surplus of balance of payment. Foreign Net Assets mounted to 360 billion dollars, largest in U.S. history and in the world.

  �FAs U.S. held so many money, they could import freely, using such money. However, if you spend more than you yield, you must loose the deficit amount.

  �GU.S. import increased and exceeded the export. U.S. balance of payment changes from surplus to deficit. And deficit increased year by year.

  �HU.S. Deficit in a year became 100billion dollar. It is too much even U.S. Because, U.S. loose 100 billion dollar in a year. U.S. held 360 billion dollars but if this deficit will continue, total net assets will disappear within 4 years. This means that 100 billion dollar deficit in a year is too much even for U.S.

  �IActually, 100 billion dollar deficit continued 4 years. After then, deficit increase to 200 billion dollar next year. Next year 300 billion dollar, next year 400 billion dollar,  next year 390 billion dollar, next year 470 billion dollar, next year 530 billion dollar, next year 660 billion dollar, that is last year.

  �JAfter diminishing foreign net assets, U.S. have to borrow from abroad.  Now U.S. foreign net assets become -3,600 billion dollar, or net debts become 3,600 billion dollar, more than 10 times of the largest net assets at that time.

  �KThe Unite States of America already borrowed too much. This kind of borrowing cannot continue, because no one lends money to such large borrower forever.

�LThat means the United States cannot import so much. So we cannot export so much continuously.

  �MIf our export decline, our economic level decline sharply.

  �NMore than the United States element, we have much large support from the deficit of Japanese government budget.

(c)Tremendous debt of the government』

  �@Budget deficit of our government is tremendous. Our economy has been supported too much by this deficit.

  �AFor so long years, say almost 40 years, government tried to stimulate economy by fiscal policy. We used tax policy, tax cut and public spending.

  �BThrough tax deduction, people can spend much more. That will increase total demand, and stimulate economy as a whole.

  �CGovernment public investments stimulate economy more directly.

  �DPeople always want higher living standard. For that purpose, people hope the government to stimulate economy always using fiscal policy. Our government accepted the people’s opinion.

  �ESuch kind of fiscal policy leads the budget to deficit. And it makes deficit larger and larger.

  �FThe deficit of budget is not normal. It is clear and well understood. Still it is difficult to diminish deficit. The reason is simple. Such policy makes economy bad. No one wants such economy. So, large amount of deficit of budget continues.

  �GAs the result of many years deficit, government has very large amount of borrowing.  Total government debts are 538 trillion yen.  It is too much.

�HWe have to pay too much money as interest payment every year. It will be too much amount, because interest payment will go up until the total amount of government revenue of a year. This means we cannot spend even one yen, as there remains nothing, if we pay interest.

�IGovernment’s revenue of this year would be 48 trillion yen. However, we have to send 16 trillion yen to local governments. So, there remain only 32 trillion yen.

  �JIf we pay interest of 6% of government debts 538 trillion yen, it is 32 trillion yen, which is just the total revenue of our government.

�KBut interest payment is indispensable, if we will not pay interest of government bonds, no one want to buy government bonds. Actually our government must issue bonds every month, otherwise we cannot pay salaries for the public employees.』

  �LWe must remember that this is the tragedy for the future Japanese people. 『At the same time, we should not forget that our economy has been supported too much by this government deficit.

(d)Decreasing of government debt is inevitable.

  �@Decreasing of government debt is inevitable. But this depresses Japanese economy. It is impossible for us to expect that present favorable economic situation will continue.

  �AIn a long run, Japanese economy will decline. This means that for the companies future situation is quite unfavorable. They cannot get profit by all means. They could not survive.

  �BSuitable solution will be to close the enterprises.

(e)Loss of manufacturing technologies

  �@The most important point is Loss of manufacturing technologies. Most of the technologies are not written in a paper.  Many technologies are inherited by daily work. If the company stops to work, their precise technology will disappear.

  �AOnce, the technology disappear, it is difficult to recover them. This is the most fundamental reason of hollowing of industry and total economy, this kind of phenomenon is prevailing now in the United States.

  �BWe should keep various type of technologies. I dare say, we should not only keep them but also develop them forever.

4. Keeping/Development of Technologies

(a)No hope for the Government policy

  �@No one deny such proposal. Almost all persons want to rely on government aids, trying to get much budget for that purpose.

  �AUnfortunately, it seems fruitless.

  �BRather than that, we should diminish government debts. That will cause worse economy, stimulating depression. We should notice the severe economic future. It is difficult for enterprises to survive.

(b)Enterprise continuity

  �@The only way of keeping technology is in the hands of enterprises.

�AThey try to keep and develop various type of technologies. As it is necessary for them, in the severe competition, it is no doubt that they try their best to develop technologies.

  �BHowever, their situation is very severe. It is hard for each company to survive, in the coming depression.

  �CSurvival of enterprises is the essential point.

5.Under a Fall of Economic Power

(a)Excessive level of economic activities

  �@For so long period, our economy has been in depression. And we are always in over supply economy. We need not produce goods, as production excels over supply.

�AWe have to change our attitude to manufacturing. We should support various enterprises. Otherwise, we cannot keep our economy as well.

(b)Selection and concentration

  �@We must seek for the very narrow path.

  �AGovernment must decrease the government debts. For that, government has to eliminate spending, dramatically.

�BIf we want government aid or support, we have to select the item. That must be most important one. Of course we must concentrate our energy to the most essential point.

�CAt the same time, we have to accept tax raise. According to my simulation, Consumption Tax rate must raise up until 45% . 45% consumption tax is too high. Unbelievably high. People will not accept such high consumption taxes, unless government decrease expenditure dramatically.

  �DThe result of revolution of government budget is very severe for Japanese future economy. There comes great depression. Through that depression, we must support enterprises, to be alive and to keep technologies.

  �EOtherwise, we could not expect another recovery of our economy.